Republican Michael DelGrosso has released data indicating he is gaining support from both financially and from voters in the primary race for the Ninth Congressional District.
DelGrosso is challenging incumbent Bill Shuster in the April 27th Republican Primary. In the poll, less than half the respondents, 46 percent, said Congressman Shuster is doing his job well enough to deserve reelection. In addition, the poll shows that in an “informed ballot” head to head question, DelGrosso and Shuster are in a statistical dead heat with 43 percent voting for DelGrosso, 39 percent favor Shuster and 18 percent are undecided.
“Incumbents traditionally look for the “re-elect” scores.” said Jim Lee, the president of Susquehanna Research and Polling of Harrisburg. “The re-elect is typically viewed as a key barometer on an incumbent’s base of support, so anytime you get an incumbent under fifty percent, it means he or she hasn’t convinced a majority of the voters that they’ve done a good enough job to deserve reelection. In this case, 46 percent is a sign of vulnerability.”
“We are thrilled to see the positive poll results. I think it shows if we keep working hard we’ll win,” DelGrosso told The Daily Herald.
The Shuster camp response to the new poll and financial information was in sharp contrast.
“A day after almost every newspaper in the district indicated DelGrosso was failing miserably in financing, they decide to release a two-month old poll which doesn’t have much data,” said Ray Zaborney of the Shuster campaign office.
“You should really ask them about what an ‘informed ballot’ question is, the real story of the poll is in the details,” Zaborney told The Daily Herald.
When the question about “informed ballot” was posed to Justin Meyer of the DelGrosso for Congress campaign, he indicated it was a practice used by candidates who may not be as well known as an incumbent.
“People are asked who they would vote for once they have equal information on both candidates, both positive and negative,” said Meyer in response to Zaborney.
New financial data released this week by the Federal Election Commission indicates a swing in momentum in the area of hard money fundraising.
The data which examined money from individuals showed DelGrosso has raised nearly five times as much hard money as Shuster.
In 2003, Shuster’s hard money fundraising showed a steep decline from $74,250 in the second quarter to $11,275 in the fourth quarter. During the same time DelGrosso’s hard money fundraising showed steady advances. In the second quarter of 2003, DelGrosso raised $41, 985. It increased to $47,097 in the third quarter, and again to $52, 118 in the fourth quarter.
“(The momentum is clear) it shows in the polling numbers and fundraising figures. The people who count, the voters of the Ninth District are behind this campaign,” DelGrosso said. “If you want to know you is supporting Bill Shuster, just look to the most recent financial reports to see that 88 percent of Shuster’s money comes from special interests, and 92 percent of his total funds comes from outside the Ninth District.”
Shuster’s campaign indicated it has a five to one advantage from all sources.
“There really isn’t any difference between hard and soft money anymore, we are following the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act,” said Zaborney. “DelGrosso has called people such as Rick Santorum, Melissa Hart and the NRA special interest. One thing is I’ll give them, Senator Santorum does have a special interest in the Ninth District, he’d like to see Congressman Shuster re-elected.”
Meyer indicated the funding data shows people like Senator Santorum are just a small part of the special interest groups supporting Shuster.
“When you don’t like the results you attack the poll,” DelGrosso told The Daily Herald. “We don’t have the money to waste on useless data and we need real information. These aren’t “push” polls which are unethical. We don’t do these just to have positive news releases, we want to see where we stand in the campaign.”
Every legitimate candidate does “informed ballot” polling to get a legatee feel for where they stand with the voters indicated DelGrosso.
“The real thing you have to look at is Congressman’s Shuster’s “re-elect” figure of 46 percent. That’s not good,” said DelGrosso.
Lee stressed the poll data also speaks to issues important to voters of the district.
“The survey shows the congressman is especially vulnerable on creating new jobs and economic development opportunities in the district,” said Lee.
He indicated the majority of the voters rate the incumbent’s job performance on the issue as only fair or poor.
Susquehanna Research and Polling conducted the poll Dec. 8-9, 2003 with 350 registered Republican voters who have a recent history of voting in prior GOP primary elections. Voters were randomly selected throughout the district so the demographics of those interviewed closely mirror the demographics of the district from a standpoint of geography, age, gender as well as other factors. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent in 95 out of 100 instances.
